Terms of Service

Effective October 22, 2026 · Hindsight is operated by Marco Slump

1. Who we are

Hindsight ("we", "us") is operated by Marco Slump. You can reach us at hindsight.20.20.support@gmail.com. By creating an account you agree to these terms, the Privacy Policy and the Risk Disclosure.

2. Who can use it

You must be at least 18 and allowed to trade event contracts where you live, on Kalshi or Polymarket US. You're responsible for following the laws that apply to you and the exchanges' own terms.

3. What the service is

Hindsight shows live market information for the 15-minute crypto markets on Kalshi and Polymarket US, a model's estimate of each outcome, and "calls": suggested trades made by a fixed set of rules. Every member gets the same calls at the same time. Each call names the exchange with the better price at that moment. If it's offered on the site, you can also connect an exchange API key so that software places the calls on your own account within limits you set ("your bot"), and link your Telegram account to get the calls there.

4. Not investment advice

The calls are general and impersonal. They aren't tailored to your finances or goals, and they aren't a recommendation that you in particular should trade. We don't manage your money, we don't hold your funds, and we aren't your fiduciary. You decide whether to trade and how much.

5. Your bot

Automated trading is optional. It is available to the owner and only to members the owner individually approves while member trading is enabled. A paid membership, discount code or free access code does not grant automated trading access. Approval only unlocks the feature: it does not connect an exchange, authorize an order or turn trading on.

If you connect an exchange API key and turn your bot on, you authorize us to place buy orders on that account when a call goes out, within the coins and limits you set, until you turn the bot off or remove your keys. You can do either at any time from your account page. If you connect both Kalshi and Polymarket US, each order goes to whichever has the better price at that moment, and your limits count both together. You're responsible for every order placed on your accounts and for the exchanges' fees.

Orders may not fill, may fill at a different price than the call, or may fail because of an exchange, the network or our servers. Limits reduce risk but don't remove it. You're responsible for making sure you're allowed to connect a key to a third-party service under each exchange's terms. Use a key made only for this service and, where the exchange offers it, restrict it to a subaccount holding only what you want the bot to use.

6. Membership and billing

Membership costs $20 a month (less with a discount code), billed in advance through Stripe. It renews automatically every month, charged to the card you gave Stripe, until you cancel. Before you pay, we show you the exact renewal terms for your account and ask you to agree to them, and we email you a copy once your membership starts.

You can cancel any time from your account page with the Cancel membership button. Cancelling stops the next renewal, and you keep access until the end of the month you've paid for. We don't give refunds for partial months unless the law requires it. If a payment fails, Stripe tries again, and we may pause your access until it goes through.

Future price increases. We may increase the monthly price at our discretion for future billing periods. We will email you the new price, effective renewal date and cancellation instructions 7 to 30 days before it takes effect, and meet any additional notice or consent requirements under applicable law. The increase applies from the next renewal for which those requirements are met, never to a period already paid for. Cancel before that renewal to avoid the higher charge.

If a free month or a discount is ending, we'll email you between 7 and 30 days before the new price takes effect, subject to any additional notice requirements under applicable law. We'll also email you a reminder of your renewal terms once a year.

7. Codes

Discount and free access codes work as described when you use them, may expire or have limited uses, have no cash value, and can't be combined. We can end free access granted by a code with 30 days' notice.

8. Referral credits

When someone signs up with your referral link and pays their first invoice, you get a $5 credit toward your future bills. Credits have no cash value and can't be transferred. If you share your link publicly (a post, a video, a group chat), say that you get a credit when people join with it, and don't claim results you haven't had. We may withhold or reverse credits for self-referrals, fake accounts, misleading posts or other abuse, and we may change or end the program for future referrals.

9. Fair use

Keep your login to yourself. Don't resell or republish the calls, scrape the site, try to get around access controls or limits, or interfere with the service or other members.

If you think something on the site infringes your copyright, email hindsight.20.20.support@gmail.com with the details and we'll look into it promptly.

10. Results

The track record shows how past calls settled, counted as described on the site. Past results don't predict future results, and your own results will differ because of timing, prices, fills, fees and the limits you choose.

11. Availability

We try to keep Hindsight running all day, but it can go down, miss calls or show wrong data. We may change or stop features at any time. Telegram alerts are a convenience: Telegram can delay or drop messages, and an alert can arrive after the price has moved. The desk is where calls show first.

12. Disclaimers and limits on liability

The service is provided "as is" without warranties of any kind. To the extent the law allows, we aren't liable for trading losses, missed trades, or indirect or consequential damages, and our total liability for any claim is limited to what you paid us in the three months before it arose.

13. Ending your account

You can delete your account at any time from your account page. We may suspend or end accounts that break these terms. Sections 4, 10, 12 and 15 continue after your account ends.

14. Changes

We'll post changes here and tell members about material ones before they take effect. Continuing to use the service after that means you accept the new terms.

15. Law

These terms are governed by the laws of the State of New Jersey, and disputes go to the courts located there.

Hindsight is not affiliated with, endorsed by or sponsored by Kalshi, Polymarket, Telegram, or any other company named on this site.

Privacy Policy

Effective October 22, 2026 · Marco Slump

1. What we collect

• Your email address and password. Passwords are stored only as a one-way scrypt hash.
• Billing details from Stripe: your customer and subscription IDs, status and invoices. Stripe collects your card; we never see or store card numbers.
• If you connect your bot: the API key you give us (for Kalshi, the key ID and private key; for Polymarket US, the key ID and secret key), stored encrypted (AES-256-GCM), plus your balance, positions and the orders your bot places.
• If you link Telegram: your Telegram chat ID, username and first name, and whether you've paused alerts.
• Codes you use and referral links that brought you here or that you share.
• Sign-in records: when you logged in, your IP address and browser, used to keep your account secure.
• Your agreement to automatic renewal: the terms you were shown, when you agreed and your IP address.

2. How we use it

To run the service and your bot, bill you, apply codes and referral credits, send the emails about your membership described in the Terms, keep accounts secure, answer support requests and meet legal obligations. We don't use advertising or analytics trackers or session recording, and we don't sell your data.

The calls come from a statistical model of market prices. We don't use AI services on your account or your data, and we don't send your data to any AI provider.

3. Who else receives it

• Stripe, to take payments and manage your subscription.
• Kalshi and Polymarket US, when your bot uses your key to read your account and place orders.
• Telegram, which delivers the call alerts if you link it, so it sees your chat ID and the messages we send you. Telegram's own privacy policy covers what it does with them.
• Cloudflare, which carries traffic to the site and sees IP addresses as part of that.
• Our email provider, which delivers the emails about your membership and password resets.

We may also disclose data if the law requires it or to protect someone's safety or our legal rights.

4. Cookies and browser storage

We use one cookie, which keeps you logged in. Your browser also stores display preferences like the theme and the coin you last viewed.

5. How long we keep it

We keep account data while your account exists. When you delete your account we delete your login, sessions, exchange keys and Telegram link right away. Backup copies, including temporary rollback copies, are scheduled for deletion within 30 days. If a storage system is unavailable, deletion completes when access is restored. We keep records of payments and of orders placed for you as long as tax and accounting rules require, and records of your agreement to automatic renewal for at least three years, as California law requires.

Fonts and scripts come from our own server, not from Google or other companies.

6. Security

Connections use HTTPS, passwords are hashed, exchange keys are encrypted at rest with a key that stays on our server, and you can turn on two-step login. No system is perfectly secure; if you think a key is exposed, revoke it at the exchange and remove it here.

7. Your choices

You can change your password, remove your exchange keys, disconnect Telegram, cancel your membership or delete your account from your account page. To change your email, or if, depending on where you live, you want a copy of your data or want it corrected or deleted, email hindsight.20.20.support@gmail.com.

8. Age

Hindsight is only for people 18 and older, and we don't knowingly collect data from anyone younger.

9. Changes

We'll post changes here with a new effective date and tell members about material ones.

Risk Disclosure

Effective October 20, 2026 · Please read this before you trade

Trading event contracts involves substantial risk. You can lose all of the money you put into a contract, and over many trades you can lose money even if most of your trades win. Only trade money you can afford to lose.

1. Favorites win often and lose big

The calls usually buy the side the market already favors, at prices like 90¢ to 97¢. A contract bought at 93¢ pays $1 if it wins, so a win earns about 7¢ before the exchange's fee, while a loss costs the whole 93¢. At that price you need to win more than about 93.5% of the time just to break even after fees. A small change in the win rate decides whether the strategy makes or loses money, and a few losses can erase many wins.

2. Small records say little

A strategy can win dozens of times in a row and still lose money over time. Windows on different coins that close at the same moment tend to move together, so they aren't fully independent. Treat any record of fewer than a few hundred calls as unproven, and read the 95% range shown with every win rate.

3. The model can be wrong

The model estimates each outcome from live prices and recent volatility. Crypto prices can jump suddenly, data can arrive late or stop, and the exchanges we watch can differ from the index the markets settle on.

4. Orders can go wrong

Prices can move between a call and your order. Orders can fill partly, at a worse price, or not at all. An exchange, the network or our server can fail at any moment, including while you have open positions. Prices on Kalshi and Polymarket US often differ, and a call names the cheaper one only at the moment it goes out. Telegram alerts can arrive late.

5. Automated trading

Your bot places orders without asking you first, whenever a call goes out and your limits allow it. Set limits you're comfortable losing, watch your account, and use a key made only for this service, restricted to a subaccount where the exchange offers that.

6. How these markets settle

Kalshi and Polymarket US settle each 15-minute crypto market on the average of CF Benchmarks' Real Time Index over the last 60 seconds before the close, compared with the same average before the window opened. Each exchange can pause markets, change its rules or fees, and decide outcomes under its own rulebook. Because each rounds prices its own way, the two can, rarely, settle the same window differently. Every trade settles on its own exchange's result.

7. Not advice

Nothing on Hindsight is investment, financial, legal or tax advice. Talk to a qualified professional about your own situation.

8. Keep it in proportion

Trade only money you've set aside for it. If you're chasing losses, trading more than you meant to or hiding it, take a break and turn your bot off. Free, confidential help is available any time at 1-800-MY-RESET (call, or text 800GAM).